National Intelligence Estimate on Iran

The latest national intelligence estimate on Iran severely undercuts the Bush administration's case for targeting Iran with increased sanctions or possibly military action. It refutes the conclusions in the 2005 NIE by saying with high confidence that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003. The debate over the NIE will be interesting to watch over the next few months and the rest of Bush's presidency, as he either attempts to 'massage' the NIE to fit his political purposes or backs off. Already conservative analysts are attacking the NIE and the intelligence-gathering process. Is there ire a product of their firm belief that Iran is an enemy dedicated to acquiring nuclear weapons or of an intellectual dissonance with the arguments in the NIE?

Rationality here is the crux of their problem. They regard Iran as an irrational actor with an imbalanced military, political, and religious structure. They see Ahmanijehad as another Islamic dictator, to be toppled like Saddam and the Taliban. Is the neoconservative and traditional conservative irascibility when it comes to Islam and dictators that stops them from objectively dealing with the NIE's findings? Liberal and moderate political analysts are applauding its findings and even congratulating Bush and the international community for having exerted the pressure on Iran that forced them to curtail their weapons program.

At the end of the day, this NIE is 180 degrees from the 2005 NIE. We are seeing a fundamental shift in the intelligence community's take on Iran. This new view must have an effect on policy, to the point that the factual impetus in the Bush administration for another UN Security Council Resolution sanctioning Iran or unilateral military strikes against its weapons facilities has dissipated.